Magic or educated decision, forecasting has been around for hundreds if not thousands of years. Forecasts are commonly associated with predictions. The two, however, are distinctly different. While predictions are derived by interpolating from available knowledge, forecasts are derived through extrapolation or projecting observed outcomes in the presence of uncertainty.
In order to become a good forecaster an individual will need a quantitative mindset, business intuition, humility, and some amount of luck!
In this session we will focus on the art and science of forecasting. We will go over a variety of forecasting techniques: linear models, autoregressive models, and Bayesian time series models. In addition, we will spend time discussing the art part of forecasting, such as properly identifying uncertainty, objectively evaluating the evidence, and more!